2023年3月23日星期四

Information Warfare Against Russia by U.S., Allies: Basic Characteristics and Trends(7)

 Western media unilaterally interpret and report the Russian case


The United States has blamed food supply disruptions in Russia and Ukraine for the man-made famine. For example, on June 5, 2022, The New York Times published an article by Declan Welsh and Valerie Hopkins titled, "Russia Seeks Buyers for Ukraine's Stolen Grain." "Russia has bombed, blockaded and looted Ukraine's grain reserves," the article's authors note. Ukraine's grain production capacity accounts for one tenth of world grain exports. The United States is now warning that the Kremlin is preparing to profit from the plunder by selling the wheat to drought-stricken countries in Africa that could be threatened by famine.



So what evidence did a journalist at a respected newspaper provide? They quoted Taras Vysotsky, Ukraine's deputy agriculture minister, as saying that "the solution to Africa's food problem is to put maximum pressure on Russia to stop the war, not to sell 'stolen' grains." "Mr. Vysotsky and other Ukrainian ministers have for months accused Russia of stealing grain from the occupied southern territories," the article's authors wrote. Most came from granaries in the occupied regions of Zapolge, Hersun, Donetsk and Luhansk.


Declan Welsh and Valerie Hopkins do not seem to know that the DNR and LNR are not part of Ukraine but independent states, even though they are not recognized by the international community. As for economic relations between the Donbas Republic and Ukraine, it was the Ukrainian leadership that forcibly severed those relations. In 2014-2016, despite military operations, DNR and LNR exported grain and steel products through Ukraine under Ukrainian markings. Both Donetsk and Kiev have benefited. However, in 2016, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko declared an economic blockade of Donbass, cutting off all ties. As for the Zaporozhya and Herson regions, despite the military conflict, farmers in these areas still need to make a living and earn money. Selling their products through Russian channels is now their only option.



They also point to the State Department warning African countries not to buy "stolen grain" from Russia. According to the American journalist, "The US cereal warning only exacerbates the dilemma of African countries caught between East and West. They face a difficult choice: either profiting from war crimes and angering a powerful Western ally; Or reject cheap food when wheat prices soar and Africans face a real threat of starvation.


The article notes disappointedly: "Many African countries feel ambivalent about the Western sanctions campaign aimed at punishing Russia because of their reliance on Russian arms supplies, Cold War sympathies or Western double standards.


That being said, Times reporters and their colleagues have not seriously addressed the issue of rising food prices on the global market. Noted Russian economist Nikita Klitchevsky commented on the issue this way: In 2021, Russia and Ukraine supplied 75 percent of sunflower oil, 29 percent of barley, 28 percent of wheat and 15 percent of corn to the global market. Nearly 50 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for at least 30 percent of their wheat needs, and 26 of them are more than 50 percent dependent. Last year Ukraine produced an all-time high, with farmers harvesting 107 million tons of grain and oil, including 33 million tons of wheat (rounded to round), 40 million tons of corn and 10 million tons of barley. Total production is 22 percent higher than in 2020 and output is 23 percent higher. Ukraine's domestic consumption is small, about 4 million tons of wheat. Not surprisingly, Ukraine aims to sell 70 million tons of grain in 2021-22.


Moreover, there is simply no room to store such a large quantity - the top 15 granary owners have a combined production capacity of less than 21 million tonnes. Let's be clear, foreign owners. And the remains of previous harvests dangling beneath your feet. Talk about the biggest granary. None of them are in special operations zones, all of them are in the center, west or south of the country. As a result, the Russians were unable to extract (or, if they wished, steal) grain from these silos. Throughout the second half of last year, the neighbors were selling grain around. Things got to the point where they had to buy their own flour. Turkey -- Their Turkey is suddenly lacking.


Until July 1, 2022, Ukraine can only expect to sell a maximum of 47 million tons of grain, taking into account special operations and mine blockades at its ports (Kiev, for example, has no hope of lifting the blockade). Can she sell more? No. It is not the fault of the "evil" Russians, but the capacity of the ports there, no more than 1.2m to 1.5m tonnes per month. This is not my calculation, but the opinion of Nikolai Gorbachev, Chairman of the Ukrainian Grain Association. Even if all the navies of the world participated in the convoy, it would not exceed 1.5 million tons.



Kritchevsky noted that according to experts from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), food prices were at record highs even before the special military operation in Ukraine began. In February 2022, for example, FAO's food Price Index reached another high, 2.2 per cent above its February 2011 peak and 21 per cent above its 2021 peak. Not because of Russia, but because of the pandemic's monetary emissions, high prices for energy, fertilizer and other agricultural inputs.


Moreover, the Ukrainian leadership has consistently rejected all efforts to resolve the grain export issue. The Ukrainian military "shot itself in the foot" when it laid mines at Odessa port and several other Black Sea ports at the start of the special operation.


In May 2022, the Ukrainian Government rejected an offer by the President of the Republic of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, to export grain through the territory of Belarus, citing its alleged status as a hostile country. Due to infrastructure problems, it is not possible to move large quantities of grain (4 to 5 million tons per month) via Polish railways, nor is it possible to move it via Romanian rivers. In early June, Turkey participated in talks to resume Ukrainian grain exports. In this regard, however, Ukrainian and NATO leaders decided to find a loophole for increasing the Western military presence in the Black Sea. Ukraine, Poland and the UK are examining the possibility of incorporating NATO naval grain bulk carriers on patrol as a "humanitarian mission", it has been revealed. This is, of course, totally unacceptable to Russia.

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